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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 90

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to DAL 46, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.08 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 90, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 47, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model