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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 14

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott (54-E.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.66 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EP