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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP