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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(10:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP