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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 9, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model