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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(6:45) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DAL 17, Center-58-A.Cutting. 10-T.Austin to DAL 17 for no gain (23-M.Boone).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model