4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
MIN Away

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 💨 Windy Spread -5.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

MIN
54.7%
KC
45.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • MIN on 3 more days rest than KC
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): +0.114 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
KC 21
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

MIN

Adam Thielen WR Questionable Hamstring

KC

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Out Ankle
Eric Fisher T Out Groin
Alex Okafor DE Out Ankle
Chris Jones DT Questionable Groin
Frank Clark DE Questionable Neck
Kendall Fuller CB Questionable Thumb
Patrick Mahomes QB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 23
–
KC 26

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:28 TD KC (8:28) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-E.Griffen]. MIN 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 02:54 TD MIN (2:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 81-O.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – KC 7
  • Q2 04:38 FG KC (4:38) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIN 7 – KC 10
  • Q2 00:09 FG MIN (:09) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 10 – KC 10
  • Q3 11:57 TD MIN (11:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 31-A.Abdullah for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – KC 10
  • Q3 06:25 TD KC (6:25) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – KC 16
  • Q3 00:35 FG KC (:35) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIN 16 – KC 20
  • Q4 11:03 TD MIN (11:03) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 22 – KC 20
  • Q4 02:36 FG KC (2:36) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIN 23 – KC 23
  • Q4 00:03 FG KC (:03) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIN 23 – KC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:44) 2-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to KC 28, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:24) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to MIN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 18 for 9 yards (13-B.Pringle; 44-D.O'Daniel).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (11:45) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to KC 31, Center-58-A.Cutting. 17-M.Hardman to KC 33 for 2 yards (31-A.Abdullah).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to MIN 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 36 for 7 yards (44-D.O'Daniel; 50-D.Lee).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:35) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to KC 9, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (6:13) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams left end to MIN 5 for 2 yards (55-A.Barr).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (4:38) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:06) 2-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to KC 26, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 16 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to MIN 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 32 for 10 yards (50-D.Lee).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith pushed ob at KC 11 for 4 yards (35-C.Ward).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (:09) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (10:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to MIN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 20 for 3 yards (41-J.Winchester).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (7:11) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to KC 3, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:39) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to KC 19, Center-58-A.Cutting. 17-M.Hardman to KC 34 for 15 yards (23-M.Boone; 42-B.Gedeon).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (:35) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:41) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to KC 26, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:55) 2-B.Colquitt punts 27 yards to MIN 45, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.