4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 27

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(:35) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.02 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model