4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model