Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 82

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

(1:55) 2-B.Colquitt punts 27 yards to MIN 45, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model