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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to KC 31, Center-58-A.Cutting. 17-M.Hardman to KC 33 for 2 yards (31-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.66 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP