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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to MIN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 18 for 9 yards (13-B.Pringle; 44-D.O'Daniel).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.63 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP