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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 09:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

HOU
64.4%
JAX
35.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • HOU offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • HOU crossing 6 time zone(s)
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.140 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.023 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 25
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

HOU

Will Fuller WR Out Hamstring
Tashaun Gipson S Out Back
Lonnie Johnson CB Out Concussion
Greg Mancz C Out Concussion
Bradley Roby CB Out Hamstring
Tytus Howard T Questionable Knee
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Shoulder

JAX

Leon Jacobs LB Out Hamstring
Quincy Williams LB Out Hamstring
D.J. Hayden CB Questionable Neck
Dede Westbrook WR Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 26
–
JAX 3

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:24 FG HOU (8:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 05:58 TD HOU (5:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 87-D.Fells for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – JAX 0
  • Q2 01:52 FG JAX (1:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. HOU 9 – JAX 3
  • Q3 05:02 FG HOU (5:02) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 12 – JAX 3
  • Q3 00:38 TD HOU (:38) 25-D.Johnson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 18 – JAX 3
  • Q4 04:22 TD HOU (4:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-21-A.Bouye, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. HOU 25 – JAX 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

    (8:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:37) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (2:37) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-M.Walker to JAX 28 for 7 yards (34-T.Jones).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:18) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 55%

    (9:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 88-J.Akins pushed ob at JAX 27 for 12 yards (44-M.Jack).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (1:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 53%

    (:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 14 at the 31
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

    (9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-L.Cooke sacked at HOU 43 for -12 yards (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun). FUMBLES (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun) [35-K.Crossen], recovered by JAX-4-J.Lambo at 50. 4-J.Lambo to 50 for no gain (28-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%

    (5:02) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:57) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (11:05) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass incomplete deep middle to 18-C.Conley (22-G.Conley). Jacksonville challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 10:58.)

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:20) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-M.Walker to JAX 20 for 1 yard (41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 53%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to JAX 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-34-T.Jones.