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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 39

Houston Texans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 88-J.Akins pushed ob at JAX 27 for 12 yards (44-M.Jack).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.35 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model