Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 3

(5:37) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.57 EP
51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model