4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(11:05) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass incomplete deep middle to 18-C.Conley (22-G.Conley). Jacksonville challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 10:58.)

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP