Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 66

Houston Texans 19 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(8:20) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-M.Walker to JAX 20 for 1 yard (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.73 EP
58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model