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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 40

Houston Texans 26 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to JAX 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-34-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP