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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 40

Houston Texans 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.92 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model