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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 24

Houston Texans 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.31 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model