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Washington Commanders

HC Bill Callahan
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Thursday 2019-10-24 · 20:20 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 16.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

WAS
20.5%
MIN
79.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.235 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • WAS defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 17
–
MIN 28
Projected margin: MIN by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

WAS

Deshazor Everett S Out Ankle
Josh Harvey-Clemons LB Out Hamstring
Wes Martin G Out Chest
Chris Thompson RB Out Toe
Vernon Davis TE Out Concussion
Montae Nicholson S Questionable Ankle
Josh Norman CB Questionable Thigh
Adrian Peterson RB Questionable Ankle
Steven Sims WR Questionable Toe

MIN

Adam Thielen WR Out Hamstring
Jalyn Holmes DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 9
–
MIN 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:25 FG MIN (5:25) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. WAS 0 – MIN 3
  • Q2 14:03 FG WAS (14:03) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – MIN 3
  • Q2 07:29 FG MIN (7:29) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. WAS 3 – MIN 6
  • Q2 02:00 FG WAS (2:00) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – MIN 6
  • Q2 00:11 TD MIN (:11) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – MIN 12
  • Q3 08:37 FG MIN (8:37) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. WAS 6 – MIN 16
  • Q3 05:15 FG WAS (5:15) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 9 – MIN 16
  • Q4 10:40 FG MIN (10:40) 5-D.Bailey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. WAS 9 – MIN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 65%

    (7:15) 33-D.Cook up the middle to WAS 35 for 2 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 75%

    (5:25) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (14:03) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (7:29) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 96%

    (2:00) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:36) 5-T.Way punts 63 yards to MIN 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-32-J.Moreland.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (8:37) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%

    (5:15) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:48) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to MIN 34 for no gain (94-D.Payne; 20-L.Collins).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (10:40) 5-D.Bailey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:50) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to MIN 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:32) 25-A.Mattison left tackle to WAS 4 for 3 yards (55-C.Holcomb).