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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 32

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.54 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model