4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 22

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 5-D.Bailey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model