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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 1 at the 37
Minnesota Vikings 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(7:15) 33-D.Cook up the middle to WAS 35 for 2 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
The Three Options
GO
+2.24 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.81 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP
KICK
+0.78 EP
- 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
- 35% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT
+0.37 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
