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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 12

Washington Commanders 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model