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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model