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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 78

Washington Commanders 9 – Minnesota Vikings 19

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to MIN 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model