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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

LAC
44.1%
CHI
55.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 22
–
CHI 23
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

LAC

Nasir Adderley S Out Hamstring
Cortez Broughton DT Out Illness
Justin Jones DT Out Shoulder
Brandon Mebane DT Out Knee
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Hamstring
Michael Badgley K Questionable right Groin
Melvin Ingram DE Questionable Hamstring
Derek Watt RB Questionable Knee
Justin Jackson RB Questionable Calf

CHI

Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 17
–
CHI 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:48 FG CHI (14:48) 15-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. LAC 0 – CHI 3
  • Q2 04:20 FG CHI (4:20) 15-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. LAC 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 02:21 TD LAC (2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – CHI 6
  • Q2 00:01 FG CHI (:01) 15-E.Pineiro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. LAC 7 – CHI 9
  • Q3 08:12 TD CHI (8:12) 32-D.Montgomery right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – CHI 15
  • Q3 00:42 FG LAC (:42) 3-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 10 – CHI 16
  • Q4 08:12 TD LAC (8:12) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – CHI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:02) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 53 yards to CHI 18, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 21 for 3 yards (35-T.Pope).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 18 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to LAC 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-D.King to LAC 33 for no gain (47-I.Irving).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:53) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 52 yards to CHI 9, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 15 for 6 yards (34-D.Watt).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (2:18) 15-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (14:48) 15-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:42) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 54 yards to CHI 2, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 26 for 24 yards (28-B.Facyson).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to LAC 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:53) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 52 yards to CHI 29, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen ran ob at CHI 29 for no gain.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (4:20) 15-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (:01) 15-E.Pineiro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 42%

    (9:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 17-A.Miller to LAC 35 for 8 yards (52-D.Perryman).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (:42) 3-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%

    (10:57) 3-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 16 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 34%

    (2:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to LAC 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:45) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to CHI 18, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 17 yards (49-D.Tranquill).