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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(8:53) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 52 yards to CHI 29, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen ran ob at CHI 29 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.16 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 81, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model