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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 1

Chicago Bears 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(:01) 15-E.Pineiro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +4.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.95 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP