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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 46

Chicago Bears 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to LAC 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.15 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model