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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:53) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 52 yards to CHI 9, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 15 for 6 yards (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model