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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:48) 15-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.56 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP