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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 43

Chicago Bears 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 17-A.Miller to LAC 35 for 8 yards (52-D.Perryman).

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model