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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(:42) 3-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 2, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP