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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2019-10-13 · 16:05 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

SF
47.2%
LA
52.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.198 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LA on 4 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
LA 24
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SF

Kyle Juszczyk RB Out Knee
Mike McGlinchey T Out Knee
Joe Staley T Out Fibula
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Foot
George Kittle TE Questionable Groin

LA

Clay Matthews LB Out Jaw
Aqib Talib CB Out Ribs
Todd Gurley RB Doubtful Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 20
–
LA 7

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:25 TD LA (9:25) 17-R.Woods left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 03:44 TD SF (3:44) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 6 – LA 7
  • Q3 12:58 TD SF (12:58) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 13 – LA 7
  • Q3 05:02 FG SF (5:02) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 17 – LA 7
  • Q4 12:08 FG SF (12:08) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 20 – LA 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:02) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to LA 36, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Natson to SF 37 for 27 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). San Francisco challenged the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to LA 36, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Natson ran ob at LA 44 for 8 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q2 LA 4th & 20 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 29%

    (8:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SF 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:47) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to SF 46, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (3:20) 34-M.Brown up the middle to SF 1 for no gain (93-D.Jones, 91-A.Armstead).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 53%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo right tackle to LA 37 for 4 yards (51-T.Reeder).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (5:02) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 17 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:53) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to SF 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 42 for 9 yards (33-N.Scott).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (12:08) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:26) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 44 for no gain (20-J.Ward, 54-F.Warner).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 81%

    (7:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 18-C.Kupp (20-J.Ward).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:58) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to LA 32, Center-89-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 16 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:33) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 34 yards to LA 30, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-53-M.Nzeocha.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 81-G.Everett.