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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -1.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model