Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 7

(3:33) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 34 yards to LA 30, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-53-M.Nzeocha.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.50 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -1.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model