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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.20 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model