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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 34-M.Brown up the middle to SF 1 for no gain (93-D.Jones, 91-A.Armstead).

The Three Options

GO +3.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model