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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 81-G.Everett.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model