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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 41

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo right tackle to LA 37 for 4 yards (51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.47 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model