Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 87

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to LA 36, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Natson to SF 37 for 27 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). San Francisco challenged the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to LA 36, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Natson ran ob at LA 44 for 8 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.73 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 87, worth -5.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model