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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Thursday 2019-10-03 · 20:20 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

LA
37.0%
SEA
63.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.189 vs Jared Goff (LA) -0.030 EPA/dropback
  • LA offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

LA

Bryce Hager LB Out Shoulder
Taylor Rapp S Doubtful Ankle

SEA

Duane Brown T Questionable Biceps
Ethan Pocic C Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 29
–
SEA 30

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:29 FG LA (12:29) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – SEA 0
  • Q1 04:59 FG LA (4:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 00:59 TD SEA (:59) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – SEA 6
  • Q2 08:15 TD SEA (8:15) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-DK.Metcalf for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – SEA 13
  • Q2 00:13 TD LA (:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-C.Kupp for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 12 – SEA 14
  • Q3 12:11 TD LA (12:11) 30-T.Gurley right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – SEA 14
  • Q3 05:50 TD SEA (5:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 83-D.Moore for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – SEA 20
  • Q3 03:10 TD LA (3:10) 30-T.Gurley right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – SEA 21
  • Q4 13:41 FG SEA (13:41) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 26 – SEA 24
  • Q4 09:23 FG LA (9:23) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 29 – SEA 24
  • Q4 02:34 TD SEA (2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Carson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 29 – SEA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 78%

    (12:29) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to LA 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Natson to LA 31 for 15 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (4:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for 4 yards (48-T.Howard). PENALTY on SEA-93-B.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:33) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to LA 20, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 76%

    (1:38) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to LA 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 9 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to LA 47, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 86%

    (13:41) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (9:23) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Carson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 25%

    (1:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LA 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-J.Natson to LA 7 for 1 yard (25-T.Homer).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.