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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 14

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model