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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.91 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model