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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 29 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.67 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model