Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for 4 yards (48-T.Howard). PENALTY on SEA-93-B.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model