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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model