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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to LA 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model